Friday, April 27, 2007

GMANEWS.TV Eleksiyon 2007 Series, "SWS poll: 5 GO, 1 indie, 3 TU bets in top 9"

SWS poll: 5 GO, 1 indie, 3 TU bets in top 9
Five members of the Genuine Opposition (GO), one Independent, and three Team Unity (TU) candidates are poised to take the top nine seats in the May 14 elections while three GO, one Independent, and two TU candidates in statistical contention for the last three seats, the Social Weather Stations said Tuesday.

The first four candidates are all from GO: 1. Loren Legarda, 58%; 2. Manuel "Manny" Villar, 45%; 3-4. Panfilo "Ping" Lacson and Francis "Chiz" Escudero, both 41%. Legarda and Villar were also 1st and 2nd in the PDI-SWS Election Survey of March 15-18, 2007, while Lacson and Escudero moved up from 4th and 5th respectively, the polling firm said in a statement.

Now in 5th is Independent candidate Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan (39%), who was formerly in 3rd place.

Next is a batch of three TU candidates: 6. Ralph Recto (36%), 7. Edgardo Angara (35%), and 8. Joker Arroyo (32%), who improved respectively from 7th, 8th, and 10th a month ago.

Ninth is GO candidate Alan Peter Cayetano (31%), down from 6th place in March -- this counts for him all votes written simply 'Cayetano' without a first name, or assumes that Joselito Cayetano will be disqualified as a nuisance candidate.

The SWS said that those in the top nine all have winning positions, as of mid-April, since they are statistically above the 13th place.

6 contend for last 3 seats, as of mid-April

In contention for the last three seats are: 10. TU's Vicente "Tito" Sotto III (30%); 11-13. Independent candidate Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan, and GO's Aquilino "Koko" Pimentel III and Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III (28%); 14. TU's Juan Miguel "Migz" Zubiri (27%); and 15. GO's Sonia Roco (25%).

For a sample proportion of 28%, the SWS said that error margin is 2-1/2 %, plus or minus.

Compared to mid-March, Sotto improved from tied-12th, Honasan declined from 9th, Pimentel improved from 14th, Noynoy Aquino declined from tied-10th, Zubiri improved from 17th, and Roco improved from 16th.

Given the statistical ties, the winners as of mid-April could add at most two more GOs, at most one more Independent, and at most two more TUs, to the minimum GO-Ind-TU score of 5-1-3. As of mid-April, the range of possible scores is 7-2-3 (best for the opposition), 7-1-4, 6-2-4, 6-1-5, and 5-2-5 (best for the administration).

The pre-election survey was conducted over April 14-17 and used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 registered voters divided into random samples of 300 each in the four areas of Metro Manila, Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. By design, the sample included every city/municipality in Metro Manila, and at least one province in every region in the other three areas.

It had a sampling error margins of at most ±3% for national percentages.

Uncertain factors: Joselito Cayetano and Theodore Aquino

The SWS said that the list of candidates used in the survey included both Joselito Cayetano (Kilusan Bagong Lipunan) and Theodore Aquino (Independent).

This, it said was done in order to gauge the consequences of either or both of them being on the official list on election day.

"As of now the official list includes both Alan Peter Cayetano and Joselito Cayetano, with footnotes stating that they are subject to pending disqualification cases. Our base analysis assumes that Joselito will be disqualified, as has been signaled by some elements in Comelec. It considers votes for Joselito Cayetano (8%) as stray votes, and assigns votes for 'Cayetano-unspecified' (7%) to Alan Cayetano,"the SWS said.

"If Comelec ultimately deems Joselito qualified, then his votes would no longer be stray, and the loss of the 'Cayetano-unspecified' votes would be a serious blow to the election chances of Alan Cayetano," the firm added.

As of now, the SWS said that the official list does not include Theodore Aquino, but the SWS included it because Comelec Chairman Benjamin Abalos apparently promised in a speech to overseas Filipino voters that his qualification will be restored in time for the election.

Our base analysis considers votes for Theodore Aquino (2%) as stray votes, and assigns votes for 'Aquino-unspecified' (4%) to Noynoy Aquino (not to Teresa Aquino-Oreta, because she is officially listed as Teresa A. Oreta).

If Comelec ultimately restores Theodore Aquino's qualification, then his votes would no longer be stray, and the loss of the 'Aquino-unspecified' votes would be a serious blow to the election chances of Noynoy Aquino.

Candidates statistically below No. 12

At least 4 points away from No. 15, and at least 7 points away from No. 12, are: 16-17. Cesar Montano (TU) and Michael Defensor (TU), 21%; 18-19. John Osmeña (GO) and Prospero Pichay (TU), 20%; and 20. Vicente Magsaysay (TU), 18%.

Compared to mid-March, Montano gained 2 ranks, Defensor lost 1, Osmeña lost 6, Pichay gained 2, and Magsaysay lost 2.

Likely voters

When asked if they would vote in the May election, 93% of the respondents said they would certainly do so, 5% said they would probably vote, 1% said they might be busy, and 1% said they would definitely not vote. Some promises to vote will probably not be kept since, according to Comelec (March 15, 2007), only 77% of registered voters actually voted in the 2004 election.

A tabulation of the SWS poll based only on respondents who said they would surely vote produced no change in the ranking of senatorial candidates. - GMANews.TV
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